IPO's & The World Cup

Only seven countries have ever won the world cup (Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, Uruguay, England & Spain). Of those, only six are in the '26 World Cup. That is about 18.75% of the field. Of the other contenders, the Netherlands, US, Norway, Morocco, Japan, Mexico, Belgium, Columbia & Switzerland all technically have a shot albeit a long one.

When we look at the IPO market, the newest IPO (SpaceX) as well as those that are expected to occur shortly like Anthropic and OpenAI have people genuinely excited and ready to jump in. Only about 20 to 30% of IPOs are deemed a success (Industry analysis indicates that up to 70% to 80% of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) are considered unsuccessful, either failing to meet valuation targets, suffering from massive post-listing stock drawdowns, or delisting within five years).

Despite these long odds, there have been companies that were IPO flops that went on to great success later on (Meta is a good example). At the same time, one's appetite for risk should be measured against your ability to buy and hold those companies for a long time. Spain didn't break through until 2010. England's last title was in 1966. The Netherlands has been a frequent bridesmaid and my rooting interest Croatia has been in the finals and semis the last two World Cups.

The point is while you may root for a company or countries success, that may not be the best investing strategy for your retirement to have all of your proverbial chips in a single basket. Those IPO's of today will be entering into your portfolio soon enough through broadly diversified indexes. It's kind of like watching the World Cup and cheering on a small piece of every side (go Curacao)!