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Is a more observant investor necessarily better?
Frequently I hear participants in our retirement plans say that they feel they should "pay more attention". What they frequently mean by this is they should look at their 401K website or statements more and make more changes. Change for the sake of change isn't necessarily a good thing. The deeper and more frequent people check their account, the more nervous and anxious I find them to be. They also are more prone to make mistakes. If I looked at my account on July of 201
mark61504
4 days ago2 min read


IPO's & The World Cup
Only seven countries have ever won the world cup (Brazil, Germany, Italy, Argentina, France, Uruguay, England & Spain). Of those, only six are in the '26 World Cup. That is about 18.75% of the field. Of the other contenders, the Netherlands, US, Norway, Morocco, Japan, Mexico, Belgium, Columbia & Switzerland all technically have a shot albeit a long one. When we look at the IPO market, the newest IPO (SpaceX) as well as those that are expected to occur shortly like Anthrop
mark61504
Jun 242 min read


The Grim Reaper Prediction
When it comes to investment news, the bolder the better. No one ever shows up on CNBC or Fox Business News and predicts things will probably go up and down a bit with the longer term trend being an upward one. That doesn't sell! You gotta either sell the hype (Dow 40,000 anyone, but back in 1999) or the doom & gloom (Dow 5000, but back in 2016). The middle isn't sexy and doesn't sell. Some people are constantly predicting doom and gloom and based on the averages, they get
mark61504
Mar 181 min read


The Walk Back
The walk back is an arrow in the quiver of every good stock market prognosticator. You start with a bold announcement, ABC company is poised for record earnings because yada, yada, yada.... Another classic is the market call. US Stocks will be up XX% in year 20XX because "fill in the blank" will be rocket fuel for US companies. But what happens when the bold call is wrong? Enter the walk back. Company ABC faced unexpected headwinds from shrinking microwidgets to assemble
mark61504
Mar 51 min read


Prediction Season
It's early 2026 and we are hearing all about what the "smart money" is doing. Sometimes those folks get it right, sometimes they get it wrong, and other times they do what we call in the business the "walk back". Take a look at how a number of analysts saw 2024 playing out in the below illustration:
mark61504
Feb 101 min read


IRAs/RMDs/OMG!
One of the largest financial assets most Americans have are frequently tied to IRA's, employer retirement plans, and Roth IRA's. As we...
mark61504
Jan 222 min read
